Tanzania vs Nigeria match summary and prediction — Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
Our model makes Nigeria the pick at 46% for Tanzania vs Nigeria. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Tanzania host Nigeria on 17 November 2026. Nigeria are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This group stage 4 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Tanzania - Nigeria. Kick-off is 13:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Tanzania: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and one defeat from the last three, worth 4 points. Across those three they scored seven and conceded three, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 27.8 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of -2.
Nigeria: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Across those five they scored eight and conceded eleven, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.5 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of -2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Tanzania | Nigeria |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLW | DLWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 3 | 8 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 27.8 | 34.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 22% | 46% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Tanzania 27.8 versus Nigeria 34.5, a gap of 6.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Nigeria's way at 53%.
The call
The model tilts to Nigeria at 46%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Nigeria's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Tanzania or Nigeria?
Nigeria, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 22% Tanzania, 32% the draw and 46% Nigeria.
When and where is Tanzania vs Nigeria being played?
17 November 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Tanzania and Nigeria?
Nigeria 2-1 Tanzania on 23 December 2025.
What is the recent form of Tanzania and Nigeria?
Tanzania have taken 4 points from their last three (DLW), Nigeria 5 from theirs (DLWLD). Most recently Tanzania took a 1-1 draw away at Madagascar and Nigeria a 3-3 draw away at Russia.
How many goals are expected in Tanzania vs Nigeria?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 1.00 for Tanzania and 1.80 for Nigeria. It rates over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.