Togo vs Algeria: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Algeria the pick at 46% for Togo vs Algeria. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Togo host Algeria on 17 November 2026. Algeria are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This group stage 4 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Togo - Algeria. Kick-off is 16:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Togo: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Across those five they scored eight and conceded four, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -1.
Algeria: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored ten and conceded nine, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.8 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Togo | Algeria |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 1st |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWDW | WDWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 4 | 10 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 34.8 | 38.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 30% | 46% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Togo 34.8 versus Algeria 38.8, a gap of 4.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.55, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Algeria's way at 49%.
The call
The model tilts to Algeria at 46%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Togo or Algeria?
Algeria, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 30% Togo, 24% the draw and 46% Algeria.
When and where is Togo vs Algeria being played?
17 November 2026, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
Have Togo and Algeria met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Togo and Algeria?
Togo have taken 10 points from their last five (LWWDW), Algeria 8 from theirs (WDWLD). Most recently Togo took a 0-2 defeat away at Zambia and Algeria a 2-1 win at home to Niger.
How many goals are expected in Togo vs Algeria?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.55 — 1.35 for Togo and 1.20 for Algeria. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.