Zimbabwe vs Equatorial Guinea: match summary, form and prediction
There is barely anything between Zimbabwe and Equatorial Guinea on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
Equatorial Guinea travel to Zimbabwe on 16 November 2026 at National Sports Stadium, Harare. Zimbabwe are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 36%. This group stage 4 fixture in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification is listed as Zimbabwe - Equatorial Guinea. Kick-off is 13:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Zimbabwe: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, no draws and two defeats from the last four, worth 6 points. Across those four they scored five and conceded six, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.0 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of 0.
Equatorial Guinea: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and two defeats from the last four, worth 4 points. Across those four they scored two and conceded four, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of -1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Zimbabwe | Equatorial Guinea |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 3rd |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWL | WLLD |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 6 | 2 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.0 | 34.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 36% | 33% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.67, over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 60%.
- First goal: Leans Zimbabwe's way at 49%.
The call
The model does not commit. Zimbabwe is the nominal pick at 36%, but the three results sit close to even. Zimbabwe's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Zimbabwe's way, especially at National Sports Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Zimbabwe or Equatorial Guinea?
Zimbabwe, with an implied win probability of roughly 36%. The full split is 36% Zimbabwe, 32% the draw and 33% Equatorial Guinea.
When and where is Zimbabwe vs Equatorial Guinea being played?
16 November 2026 at National Sports Stadium, Harare, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
Have Zimbabwe and Equatorial Guinea met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Zimbabwe and Equatorial Guinea?
Zimbabwe have taken 6 points from their last four (LWWL), Equatorial Guinea 4 from theirs (WLLD). Most recently Zimbabwe took a 1-2 defeat at home to Congo DR and Equatorial Guinea a 1-0 win at home to Sierra Leone.
How many goals are expected in Zimbabwe vs Equatorial Guinea?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.67 — 1.00 for Zimbabwe and 0.67 for Equatorial Guinea. It rates over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 60%, so its call is yes.