NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes NK Lokomotiva Zagreb the pick at 48% for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb face HNK Rijeka on 12 September 2026 at Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 48%. This matchday 7 fixture in HNL is listed as NK Lokomotiva Zagreb - HNK Rijeka. Kick-off is 18:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: they come in on the back of a win, following four defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 20 conceded in 17 matches, 1.18 and 1.18 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.0 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of -4.
HNK Rijeka: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 25 conceded in 24 matches, 1.04 and 1.04 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.1 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +3.
Side by side
| Statistic | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNK Rijeka |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 5th |
| Goal difference | -4 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLLL | WDLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 9 | 8 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 24 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.18 / 1.18 | 1.04 / 1.04 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.47 | 1.54 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 34.0 | 59.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 48% | 12% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 34.0 versus HNK Rijeka 59.1, a gap of 25.1, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 7% and both teams to score at 25%.
- First goal: Leans NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's way at 69%.
The call
The model edges towards NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 48%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. HNK Rijeka's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's way, especially at Stadion Maksimir.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or HNK Rijeka?
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, with an implied win probability of roughly 48%. The full split is 48% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, 41% the draw and 12% HNK Rijeka.
When and where is NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka being played?
12 September 2026 at Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and HNK Rijeka?
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-3 HNK Rijeka on 03 May 2026.
What is the recent form of NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and HNK Rijeka?
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb have taken 3 points from their last five (WLLLL), HNK Rijeka 7 from theirs (WDLWL). Most recently NK Lokomotiva Zagreb took a 2-0 win away at Cuba U20 and HNK Rijeka a 4-1 win at home to NK Osijek.
How many goals are expected in NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 1.00 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and 0.80 for HNK Rijeka. It rates over 2.5 goals at 7%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 25%, so its call is no.