Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Dinamo Zagreb the pick at 53% for Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
HNK Rijeka travel to Dinamo Zagreb on 24 October 2026 at Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb. Dinamo Zagreb are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 53%. This matchday 11 fixture in HNL is listed as Dinamo Zagreb - HNK Rijeka. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Dinamo Zagreb: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (63 scored and 28 conceded in 25 matches, 2.52 and 1.12 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.8 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +11.
HNK Rijeka: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 25 conceded in 24 matches, 1.04 and 1.04 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.3 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Dinamo Zagreb | HNK Rijeka |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 5th |
| Goal difference | +11 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWLW | WWLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 13 / 7 | 10 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 25 | 24 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 2.52 / 1.12 | 1.04 / 1.04 |
| Points per game (2025) | 2.12 | 1.54 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 57.8 | 59.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 53% | 27% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 0 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Dinamo Zagreb none wins, HNK Rijeka none wins, two draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Dinamo Zagreb 2-2 HNK Rijeka on 18 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Dinamo Zagreb 57.8 versus HNK Rijeka 59.3, a gap of 1.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.20, over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Dinamo Zagreb's way at 62%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Dinamo Zagreb at 53%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Dinamo Zagreb's way, especially at Stadion Maksimir.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Dinamo Zagreb or HNK Rijeka?
Dinamo Zagreb, with an implied win probability of roughly 53%. The full split is 53% Dinamo Zagreb, 20% the draw and 27% HNK Rijeka.
When and where is Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka being played?
24 October 2026 at Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Dinamo Zagreb and HNK Rijeka?
Dinamo Zagreb 2-2 HNK Rijeka on 18 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Dinamo Zagreb and HNK Rijeka?
Dinamo Zagreb have taken 9 points from their last five (LWWLW), HNK Rijeka 9 from theirs (WWLLW). Most recently Dinamo Zagreb took a 2-4 defeat at home to NEC Nijmegen and HNK Rijeka a 4-1 win away at Karlovac 1919.
How many goals are expected in Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.20 — 2.40 for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.80 for HNK Rijeka. It rates over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.