HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes NK Lokomotiva Zagreb the pick at 41% for HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
HNK Gorica face NK Lokomotiva Zagreb on 24 October 2026 at Stadion Radnik, Veliky Gorica. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 41%. This matchday 11 fixture in HNL is listed as HNK Gorica - NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. Kick-off is 13:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
HNK Gorica: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 18 conceded in 17 matches, 1.0 and 1.06 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.7 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -8.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 20 conceded in 17 matches, 1.18 and 1.18 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.3 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of -4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | HNK Gorica | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 7th |
| Goal difference | -8 | -4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLDDW | WLLDW |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 7 | 7 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.0 / 1.06 | 1.18 / 1.18 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.24 | 1.47 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 39.7 | 37.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 33% | 41% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 3) | 0 | 3 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 3): HNK Gorica none wins, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb three wins, none draws — an edge to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
- Most recent meeting: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-1 HNK Gorica on 08 August 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the three — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: HNK Gorica 39.7 versus NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 37.3, a gap of 2.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's way at 52%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 41%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: HNK Gorica or NK Lokomotiva Zagreb?
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, with an implied win probability of roughly 41%. The full split is 33% HNK Gorica, 27% the draw and 41% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
When and where is HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb being played?
24 October 2026 at Stadion Radnik, Veliky Gorica, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between HNK Gorica and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb?
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-1 HNK Gorica on 08 August 2026.
What is the recent form of HNK Gorica and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb?
HNK Gorica have taken 6 points from their last five (DLDDW), NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 7 from theirs (WLLDW). Most recently HNK Gorica took a 1-1 draw away at NK Osijek and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb a 2-0 win at home to Istra 1961.
How many goals are expected in HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 0.60 for HNK Gorica and 1.60 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.