NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Belupo: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes NK Varazdin the pick at 65% for NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Belupo. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
NK Slaven Belupo travel to NK Varazdin on 24 October 2026 at Stadion Anđelko Herjavec, Varazdin. NK Varazdin are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 65%. This matchday 11 fixture in HNL is listed as NK Varazdin - NK Slaven Belupo. Kick-off is 16:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
NK Varazdin: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win and three draws before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (26 scored and 20 conceded in 18 matches, 1.44 and 1.11 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.5 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +6.
NK Slaven Belupo: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 33 conceded in 18 matches, 1.11 and 1.83 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.8 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of -10.
Comparison data
| Statistic | NK Varazdin | NK Slaven Belupo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 8th |
| Goal difference | +6 | -10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDDD | LWLDL |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 3 | 8 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 18 | 18 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.44 / 1.11 | 1.11 / 1.83 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.72 | 0.83 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 46.5 | 45.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 65% | 13% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 3) | 3 | 0 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 3): NK Varazdin three wins, NK Slaven Belupo none wins, none draws — an edge to NK Varazdin.
- Most recent meeting: NK Slaven Belupo 1-4 NK Varazdin on 09 August 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.33 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the three — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans NK Varazdin's way at 68%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards NK Varazdin at 65%, a gap of 43 percentage points to the next outcome. NK Varazdin's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts NK Varazdin's way, especially at Stadion Anđelko Herjavec.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: NK Varazdin or NK Slaven Belupo?
NK Varazdin, with an implied win probability of roughly 65%. The full split is 65% NK Varazdin, 22% the draw and 13% NK Slaven Belupo.
When and where is NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Belupo being played?
24 October 2026 at Stadion Anđelko Herjavec, Varazdin, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between NK Varazdin and NK Slaven Belupo?
NK Slaven Belupo 1-4 NK Varazdin on 09 August 2026.
What is the recent form of NK Varazdin and NK Slaven Belupo?
NK Varazdin have taken 6 points from their last five (LWDDD), NK Slaven Belupo 4 from theirs (LWLDL). Most recently NK Varazdin took a 0-1 defeat away at HNK Hajduk Split and NK Slaven Belupo a 1-5 defeat at home to Dinamo Zagreb.
How many goals are expected in NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Belupo?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.60 for NK Varazdin and 0.80 for NK Slaven Belupo. It rates over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.