HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes HNK Hajduk Split the pick at 69% for HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
HNK Hajduk Split face HNK Gorica on 31 October 2026 at Stadion Poljud, Split. HNK Hajduk Split are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 69%. This matchday 12 fixture in HNL is listed as HNK Hajduk Split - HNK Gorica. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
HNK Hajduk Split: they come in on the back of a draw, following four wins before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (31 scored and 20 conceded in 17 matches, 1.82 and 1.18 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 60.8 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +10.
HNK Gorica: they come in on two successive draws, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is no wins, four draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 18 conceded in 17 matches, 1.0 and 1.06 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 43.0 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -8.
Comparison data
| Statistic | HNK Hajduk Split | HNK Gorica |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 10th |
| Goal difference | +10 | -8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWWW | DDLDD |
| Points from last 5 | 13 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 4 | 6 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.82 / 1.18 | 1.0 / 1.06 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.65 | 1.24 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 60.8 | 43.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 69% | 10% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 1 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): HNK Hajduk Split one win, HNK Gorica one win, none draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: HNK Hajduk Split 1-0 HNK Gorica on 12 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in none of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: HNK Hajduk Split 60.8 versus HNK Gorica 43.0, a gap of 17.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Nine places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans HNK Hajduk Split's way at 70%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards HNK Hajduk Split at 69%, a gap of 48 percentage points to the next outcome. HNK Hajduk Split's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts HNK Hajduk Split's way, especially at Stadion Poljud.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: HNK Hajduk Split or HNK Gorica?
HNK Hajduk Split, with an implied win probability of roughly 69%. The full split is 69% HNK Hajduk Split, 21% the draw and 10% HNK Gorica.
When and where is HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica being played?
31 October 2026 at Stadion Poljud, Split, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between HNK Hajduk Split and HNK Gorica?
HNK Hajduk Split 1-0 HNK Gorica on 12 April 2026.
What is the recent form of HNK Hajduk Split and HNK Gorica?
HNK Hajduk Split have taken 13 points from their last five (DWWWW), HNK Gorica 4 from theirs (DDLDD). Most recently HNK Hajduk Split took a 2-2 draw away at Istra 1961 and HNK Gorica a 0-0 draw at home to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
How many goals are expected in HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.80 for HNK Hajduk Split and 0.60 for HNK Gorica. It rates over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.