HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo match summary and prediction — HNL
Our model makes HNK Gorica the pick at 44% for HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
HNK Gorica face NK Slaven Belupo on 7 November 2026 at Gradski stadion Velika Gorica, Velika Gorica. HNK Gorica are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This matchday 13 fixture in HNL is listed as HNK Gorica - NK Slaven Belupo. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
HNK Gorica: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three draws and one defeat before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (3 scored and 13 conceded in six matches, 0.5 and 2.17 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.4 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -13.
NK Slaven Belupo: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (6 scored and 16 conceded in seven matches, 0.86 and 2.29 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.6 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of -11.
Side by side
| Statistic | HNK Gorica | NK Slaven Belupo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 7th |
| Goal difference | -13 | -11 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDDLD | LWLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 11 | 8 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.5 / 2.17 | 0.86 / 2.29 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.33 | 0.86 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 38.4 | 45.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 44% | 28% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): HNK Gorica none wins, NK Slaven Belupo one win, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: NK Slaven Belupo 1-0 HNK Gorica on 10 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: HNK Gorica 38.4 versus NK Slaven Belupo 45.6, a gap of 7.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.60, over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans HNK Gorica's way at 52%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards HNK Gorica at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. NK Slaven Belupo's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts HNK Gorica's way, especially at Gradski stadion Velika Gorica.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: HNK Gorica or NK Slaven Belupo?
HNK Gorica, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 44% HNK Gorica, 27% the draw and 28% NK Slaven Belupo.
When and where is HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo being played?
7 November 2026 at Gradski stadion Velika Gorica, Velika Gorica, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between HNK Gorica and NK Slaven Belupo?
NK Slaven Belupo 1-0 HNK Gorica on 10 May 2026.
What is the recent form of HNK Gorica and NK Slaven Belupo?
HNK Gorica have taken 3 points from their last five (LDDLD), NK Slaven Belupo 6 from theirs (LWLWL). Most recently HNK Gorica took a 0-5 defeat away at HNK Hajduk Split and NK Slaven Belupo a 0-2 defeat at home to Istra 1961.
How many goals are expected in HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.60 — 0.60 for HNK Gorica and 1.00 for NK Slaven Belupo. It rates over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.