Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka match summary and prediction — HNL
Our model makes HNK Rijeka the pick at 45% for Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Istra 1961 host HNK Rijeka on 7 November 2026 at Stadion Aldo Drosina, Pula. HNK Rijeka are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 45%. This matchday 13 fixture in HNL is listed as Istra 1961 - HNK Rijeka. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Istra 1961: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (11 scored and 9 conceded in six matches, 1.83 and 1.5 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.1 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +3.
HNK Rijeka: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (11 scored and 7 conceded in seven matches, 1.57 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.1 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Istra 1961 | HNK Rijeka |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 5th |
| Goal difference | +3 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDLWL | DLWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 6 | 9 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.83 / 1.5 | 1.57 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.5 | 1.71 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 49.1 | 49.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 27% | 45% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 3) | 1 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 3): Istra 1961 one win, HNK Rijeka one win, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Istra 1961 0-0 HNK Rijeka on 17 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.67 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the three — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.40, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 61%.
- First goal: Leans HNK Rijeka's way at 55%.
The call
The model tilts to HNK Rijeka at 45%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Istra 1961 or HNK Rijeka?
HNK Rijeka, with an implied win probability of roughly 45%. The full split is 27% Istra 1961, 27% the draw and 45% HNK Rijeka.
When and where is Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka being played?
7 November 2026 at Stadion Aldo Drosina, Pula, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Istra 1961 and HNK Rijeka?
Istra 1961 0-0 HNK Rijeka on 17 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Istra 1961 and HNK Rijeka?
Istra 1961 have taken 7 points from their last five (WDLWL), HNK Rijeka 7 from theirs (DLWWL). Most recently Istra 1961 took a 2-0 win away at NK Slaven Belupo and HNK Rijeka a 1-1 draw at home to NK Varazdin.
How many goals are expected in Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.40 — 1.80 for Istra 1961 and 1.60 for HNK Rijeka. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 61%, so its call is yes.