UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 53% for UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
UTC Cajamarca face FBC Melgar on 23 October 2026 at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon, Cajamarca. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 53%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This clausura 13 fixture in Primera División is listed as UTC Cajamarca - FBC Melgar. Kick-off is 18:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
UTC Cajamarca: they come in on five defeats in a row. That is no wins, no draws and five defeats from the last five, worth 0 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (24 scored and 35 conceded in 21 matches, 1.14 and 1.67 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 20.0 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -20.
FBC Melgar: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (36 scored and 28 conceded in 24 matches, 1.5 and 1.17 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 66.2 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +18.
Comparison data
| Statistic | UTC Cajamarca | FBC Melgar |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | -20 | +18 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLLL | WDDWW |
| Points from last 5 | 0 | 11 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 10 | 11 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 21 | 24 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.14 / 1.67 | 1.5 / 1.17 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.9 | 1.62 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 20.0 | 66.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 21% | 26% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: UTC Cajamarca 20.0 versus FBC Melgar 66.2, a gap of 46.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 15 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 91% and both teams to score at 67%.
- First goal: Leans UTC Cajamarca's way at 49%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 53%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. FBC Melgar's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: UTC Cajamarca or FBC Melgar?
Neither side. Our model splits it 21% UTC Cajamarca, 53% the draw and 26% FBC Melgar, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar being played?
23 October 2026 at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon, Cajamarca, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between UTC Cajamarca and FBC Melgar?
FBC Melgar 2-0 UTC Cajamarca on 03 May 2026.
What is the recent form of UTC Cajamarca and FBC Melgar?
UTC Cajamarca have taken 0 points from their last five (LLLLL), FBC Melgar 11 from theirs (WDDWW). Most recently UTC Cajamarca took a 0-1 defeat away at Cienciano and FBC Melgar a 4-2 win at home to Deportivo Garcilaso.
How many goals are expected in UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 1.40 for UTC Cajamarca and 1.80 for FBC Melgar. It rates over 2.5 goals at 91%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 67%, so its call is yes.