Cusco vs Sporting Cristal — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Cusco the pick at 49% for Cusco vs Sporting Cristal. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Cusco face Sporting Cristal on 24 October 2026 at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco. Cusco are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 49%. This clausura 13 fixture in Primera División is listed as Cusco - Sporting Cristal. Kick-off is 20:15 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Cusco: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 39 conceded in 26 matches, 1.23 and 1.5 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.0 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of 0.
Sporting Cristal: they come in on a five-match winning sequence. That is five wins, no draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 15 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (54 scored and 50 conceded in 35 matches, 1.54 and 1.43 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 77.8 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +11.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Cusco | Sporting Cristal |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 8th |
| Goal difference | 0 | +11 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWLW | WWWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 15 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 6 | 14 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 26 | 35 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.23 / 1.5 | 1.54 / 1.43 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.31 | 1.31 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.0 | 77.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 49% | 27% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Cusco 45.0 versus Sporting Cristal 77.8, a gap of 32.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 5.00, over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans Cusco's way at 55%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Cusco at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Sporting Cristal's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Cusco's way, especially at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Cusco or Sporting Cristal?
Cusco, with an implied win probability of roughly 49%. The full split is 49% Cusco, 24% the draw and 27% Sporting Cristal.
When and where is Cusco vs Sporting Cristal being played?
24 October 2026 at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco, kick-off 20:15 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Cusco and Sporting Cristal?
Sporting Cristal 2-2 Cusco on 03 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Cusco and Sporting Cristal?
Cusco have taken 6 points from their last five (LLWLW), Sporting Cristal 15 from theirs (WWWWW). Most recently Cusco took a 1-2 defeat away at Sport Huancayo and Sporting Cristal a 4-2 win at home to Comerciantes Unidos.
How many goals are expected in Cusco vs Sporting Cristal?
The model's combined scoring line is 5.00 — 2.20 for Cusco and 2.80 for Sporting Cristal. It rates over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.