Alianza Lima vs Cienciano: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Alianza Lima the pick at 50% for Alianza Lima vs Cienciano. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Alianza Lima host Cienciano on 4 November 2026 at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima. Alianza Lima are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 50%. This clausura 15 fixture in Primera División is listed as Alianza Lima - Cienciano. Kick-off is 01:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Alianza Lima: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (46 scored and 22 conceded in 27 matches, 1.7 and 0.81 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 72.2 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +29.
Cienciano: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (58 scored and 38 conceded in 33 matches, 1.76 and 1.15 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 60.8 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +10.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Alianza Lima | Cienciano |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 6th |
| Goal difference | +29 | +10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWWL | WLWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 7 | 8 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 27 | 33 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.7 / 0.81 | 1.76 / 1.15 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.04 | 1.79 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 72.2 | 60.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 50% | 27% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Alianza Lima 72.2 versus Cienciano 60.8, a gap of 11.4, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.00, over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Alianza Lima's way at 62%.
The call
The model tilts to Alianza Lima at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Alianza Lima's way, especially at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Alianza Lima or Cienciano?
Alianza Lima, with an implied win probability of roughly 50%. The full split is 50% Alianza Lima, 23% the draw and 27% Cienciano.
When and where is Alianza Lima vs Cienciano being played?
4 November 2026 at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima, kick-off 01:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Alianza Lima and Cienciano?
Cienciano 0-1 Alianza Lima on 16 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Alianza Lima and Cienciano?
Alianza Lima have taken 9 points from their last five (LWWWL), Cienciano 10 from theirs (WLWWD). Most recently Alianza Lima took a 2-3 defeat away at Sporting Cristal and Cienciano a 3-0 win at home to Atletico Grau.
How many goals are expected in Alianza Lima vs Cienciano?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.00 — 1.60 for Alianza Lima and 2.40 for Cienciano. It rates over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.