UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso match summary and prediction — Primera División
Our model makes Deportivo Garcilaso the pick at 47% for UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
UTC Cajamarca host Deportivo Garcilaso on 2 November 2026 at Estadio Héroes de San Ramón, Cajamarca. Deportivo Garcilaso are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This clausura 15 fixture in Primera División is listed as UTC Cajamarca - Deportivo Garcilaso. Kick-off is 18:15 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
UTC Cajamarca: they come in on the back of a win, following four defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (28 scored and 39 conceded in 24 matches, 1.17 and 1.62 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 30.2 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -19.
Deportivo Garcilaso: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (36 scored and 29 conceded in 26 matches, 1.38 and 1.12 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.5 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +14.
Side by side
| Statistic | UTC Cajamarca | Deportivo Garcilaso |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 4th |
| Goal difference | -19 | +14 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLLL | LWLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 8 | 12 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 24 | 26 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.17 / 1.62 | 1.38 / 1.12 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.92 | 1.58 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 30.2 | 48.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 30% | 47% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: UTC Cajamarca 30.2 versus Deportivo Garcilaso 48.5, a gap of 18.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 14 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.80, over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 61%.
- First goal: Leans Deportivo Garcilaso's way at 55%.
The call
The model tilts to Deportivo Garcilaso at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Deportivo Garcilaso's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: UTC Cajamarca or Deportivo Garcilaso?
Deportivo Garcilaso, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 30% UTC Cajamarca, 23% the draw and 47% Deportivo Garcilaso.
When and where is UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso being played?
2 November 2026 at Estadio Héroes de San Ramón, Cajamarca, kick-off 18:15 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between UTC Cajamarca and Deportivo Garcilaso?
Deportivo Garcilaso 2-0 UTC Cajamarca on 17 May 2026.
What is the recent form of UTC Cajamarca and Deportivo Garcilaso?
UTC Cajamarca have taken 3 points from their last five (WLLLL), Deportivo Garcilaso 6 from theirs (LWLLW). Most recently UTC Cajamarca took a 3-1 win away at FC Cajamarca and Deportivo Garcilaso a 2-3 defeat away at Alianza Atletico.
How many goals are expected in UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.80 — 1.40 for UTC Cajamarca and 2.40 for Deportivo Garcilaso. It rates over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 61%, so its call is yes.