Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos match summary and prediction — Primera División
Our model makes Deportivo Garcilaso the pick at 64% for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Deportivo Garcilaso host Comerciantes Unidos on 8 November 2026 at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco. Deportivo Garcilaso are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 64%. This clausura 16 fixture in Primera División is listed as Deportivo Garcilaso - Comerciantes Unidos. Kick-off is 23:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Deportivo Garcilaso: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (39 scored and 31 conceded in 27 matches, 1.44 and 1.15 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.8 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +15.
Comerciantes Unidos: they come in on two successive draws, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (31 scored and 34 conceded in 23 matches, 1.35 and 1.48 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.2 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Deportivo Garcilaso | Comerciantes Unidos |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 13th |
| Goal difference | +15 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLWLL | DDWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 11 | 9 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 27 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.44 / 1.15 | 1.35 / 1.48 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.63 | 1.09 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 48.8 | 44.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 64% | 17% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Deportivo Garcilaso 48.8 versus Comerciantes Unidos 44.2, a gap of 4.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Nine places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.20, over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 62%.
- First goal: Leans Deportivo Garcilaso's way at 67%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Deportivo Garcilaso at 64%, a gap of 46 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Deportivo Garcilaso's way, especially at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Deportivo Garcilaso or Comerciantes Unidos?
Deportivo Garcilaso, with an implied win probability of roughly 64%. The full split is 64% Deportivo Garcilaso, 19% the draw and 17% Comerciantes Unidos.
When and where is Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos being played?
8 November 2026 at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco, kick-off 23:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Deportivo Garcilaso and Comerciantes Unidos?
Comerciantes Unidos 0-0 Deportivo Garcilaso on 25 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Deportivo Garcilaso and Comerciantes Unidos?
Deportivo Garcilaso have taken 6 points from their last five (WLWLL), Comerciantes Unidos 6 from theirs (DDWLD). Most recently Deportivo Garcilaso took a 3-2 win away at UTC Cajamarca and Comerciantes Unidos a 2-2 draw at home to ADT.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.20 — 2.60 for Deportivo Garcilaso and 1.60 for Comerciantes Unidos. It rates over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 62%, so its call is yes.