Universitario vs UCV Moquegua: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Universitario the pick at 66% for Universitario vs UCV Moquegua. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Universitario host UCV Moquegua on 9 November 2026 at Estadio Monumental, Lima. Universitario are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 66%. This clausura 16 fixture in Primera División is listed as Universitario - UCV Moquegua. Kick-off is 01:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Universitario: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (44 scored and 28 conceded in 29 matches, 1.52 and 0.97 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 63.3 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +20.
UCV Moquegua: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (21 scored and 30 conceded in 24 matches, 0.88 and 1.25 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 33.1 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -21.
Side by side
| Statistic | Universitario | UCV Moquegua |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 16th |
| Goal difference | +20 | -21 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWWD | DLLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 5 | 1 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 29 | 24 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.52 / 0.97 | 0.88 / 1.25 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.69 | 1.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 63.3 | 33.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 66% | 14% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Universitario 63.3 versus UCV Moquegua 33.1, a gap of 30.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 14 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Universitario's way at 69%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Universitario at 66%, a gap of 45 percentage points to the next outcome. Universitario's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Universitario's way, especially at Estadio Monumental.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Universitario or UCV Moquegua?
Universitario, with an implied win probability of roughly 66%. The full split is 66% Universitario, 20% the draw and 14% UCV Moquegua.
When and where is Universitario vs UCV Moquegua being played?
9 November 2026 at Estadio Monumental, Lima, kick-off 01:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Universitario and UCV Moquegua?
UCV Moquegua 0-0 Universitario on 23 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Universitario and UCV Moquegua?
Universitario have taken 10 points from their last five (LWWWD), UCV Moquegua 4 from theirs (DLLWL). Most recently Universitario took a 0-1 defeat at home to Sport Boys and UCV Moquegua a 0-0 draw at home to Club Deportivo Los Chankas.
How many goals are expected in Universitario vs UCV Moquegua?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 2.80 for Universitario and 0.40 for UCV Moquegua. It rates over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.