Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Alianza Atletico the pick at 44% for Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
FBC Melgar travel to Alianza Atletico on 14 November 2026 at Estadio Campeones del 36, Sullana. Alianza Atletico are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This clausura 17 fixture in Primera División is listed as Alianza Atletico - FBC Melgar. Kick-off is 21:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Alianza Atletico: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (36 scored and 50 conceded in 32 matches, 1.12 and 1.56 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.2 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +1.
FBC Melgar: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (41 scored and 33 conceded in 28 matches, 1.46 and 1.18 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 62.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +18.
Side by side
| Statistic | Alianza Atletico | FBC Melgar |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +1 | +18 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWLL | WLDWW |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 12 | 9 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 32 | 28 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.12 / 1.56 | 1.46 / 1.18 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.12 | 1.64 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.2 | 62.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 44% | 33% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Alianza Atletico 45.2 versus FBC Melgar 62.8, a gap of 17.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Alianza Atletico's way at 53%.
The call
The model edges towards Alianza Atletico at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Alianza Atletico's way, especially at Estadio Campeones del 36.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Alianza Atletico or FBC Melgar?
Alianza Atletico, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 44% Alianza Atletico, 23% the draw and 33% FBC Melgar.
When and where is Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar being played?
14 November 2026 at Estadio Campeones del 36, Sullana, kick-off 21:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Alianza Atletico and FBC Melgar?
FBC Melgar 3-1 Alianza Atletico on 31 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Alianza Atletico and FBC Melgar?
Alianza Atletico have taken 6 points from their last five (LWWLL), FBC Melgar 10 from theirs (WLDWW). Most recently Alianza Atletico took a 0-2 defeat away at FC Cajamarca and FBC Melgar a 2-1 win at home to Juan Pablo II College.
How many goals are expected in Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.20 for Alianza Atletico and 1.20 for FBC Melgar. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.