Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Alianza Lima the pick at 63% for Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Alianza Lima host FC Cajamarca on 14 November 2026 at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima. Alianza Lima are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 63%. This clausura 17 fixture in Primera División is listed as Alianza Lima - FC Cajamarca. Kick-off is 21:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Alianza Lima: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (48 scored and 23 conceded in 29 matches, 1.66 and 0.79 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 65.8 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +30.
FC Cajamarca: they come in on the back of a win, following four defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (34 scored and 48 conceded in 24 matches, 1.42 and 2.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 30.2 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -19.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Alianza Lima | FC Cajamarca |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 16th |
| Goal difference | +30 | -19 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWLWW | WLLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 5 | 5 / 13 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 29 | 24 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.66 / 0.79 | 1.42 / 2.0 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.03 | 0.96 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 65.8 | 30.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 63% | 14% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Alianza Lima 65.8 versus FC Cajamarca 30.2, a gap of 35.6, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 15 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Alianza Lima's way at 70%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Alianza Lima at 63%, a gap of 40 percentage points to the next outcome. Alianza Lima's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Alianza Lima's way, especially at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Alianza Lima or FC Cajamarca?
Alianza Lima, with an implied win probability of roughly 63%. The full split is 63% Alianza Lima, 23% the draw and 14% FC Cajamarca.
When and where is Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca being played?
14 November 2026 at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima, kick-off 21:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Alianza Lima and FC Cajamarca?
FC Cajamarca 1-1 Alianza Lima on 31 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Alianza Lima and FC Cajamarca?
Alianza Lima have taken 10 points from their last five (DWLWW), FC Cajamarca 3 from theirs (WLLLL). Most recently Alianza Lima took a 1-1 draw away at Club Deportivo Los Chankas and FC Cajamarca a 2-0 win at home to Alianza Atletico.
How many goals are expected in Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.60 for Alianza Lima and 1.00 for FC Cajamarca. It rates over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.