UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes UCV Moquegua the pick at 43% for UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Atletico Grau travel to UCV Moquegua on 14 November 2026 at Estadio 25 de Noviembre, Moquegua. UCV Moquegua are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 43%. This clausura 17 fixture in Primera División is listed as UCV Moquegua - Atletico Grau. Kick-off is 21:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
UCV Moquegua: they come in on two successive draws, following one win and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (23 scored and 32 conceded in 25 matches, 0.92 and 1.28 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 36.4 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -21.
Atletico Grau: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 30 conceded in 26 matches, 0.96 and 1.15 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 36.1 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -9.
Comparison data
| Statistic | UCV Moquegua | Atletico Grau |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th | 14th |
| Goal difference | -21 | -9 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDLLW | WLLDL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 5 | 6 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 25 | 26 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.92 / 1.28 | 0.96 / 1.15 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.0 | 1.15 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 36.4 | 36.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 43% | 28% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans UCV Moquegua's way at 54%.
The call
The model edges towards UCV Moquegua at 43%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts UCV Moquegua's way, especially at Estadio 25 de Noviembre.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: UCV Moquegua or Atletico Grau?
UCV Moquegua, with an implied win probability of roughly 43%. The full split is 43% UCV Moquegua, 29% the draw and 28% Atletico Grau.
When and where is UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau being played?
14 November 2026 at Estadio 25 de Noviembre, Moquegua, kick-off 21:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between UCV Moquegua and Atletico Grau?
Atletico Grau 1-0 UCV Moquegua on 29 May 2026.
What is the recent form of UCV Moquegua and Atletico Grau?
UCV Moquegua have taken 5 points from their last five (DDLLW), Atletico Grau 4 from theirs (WLLDL). Most recently UCV Moquegua took a 2-2 draw away at Universitario and Atletico Grau a 3-0 win at home to Cusco.
How many goals are expected in UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 0.60 for UCV Moquegua and 1.20 for Atletico Grau. It rates over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.