Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Atletico Nacional the pick at 61% for Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Atletico Nacional host Santa Fe on 30 October 2026 at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin. Atletico Nacional are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 61%. This clausura 5 fixture in Primera A is listed as Atletico Nacional - Santa Fe. Kick-off is 01:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Atletico Nacional: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (55 scored and 25 conceded in 29 matches, 1.9 and 0.86 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 63.3 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +20.
Santa Fe: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and one defeat from the last four, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (50 scored and 39 conceded in 38 matches, 1.32 and 1.03 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.8 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +7.
Side by side
| Statistic | Atletico Nacional | Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 7th |
| Goal difference | +20 | +7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWLWW | WLDW |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 5 | 5 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 29 | 38 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.9 / 0.86 | 1.32 / 1.03 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.21 | 1.39 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 63.3 | 56.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 61% | 17% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Atletico Nacional 63.3 versus Santa Fe 56.8, a gap of 6.6, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 50%.
- First goal: Leans Atletico Nacional's way at 62%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Atletico Nacional at 61%, a gap of 39 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Atletico Nacional's way, especially at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Atletico Nacional or Santa Fe?
Atletico Nacional, with an implied win probability of roughly 61%. The full split is 61% Atletico Nacional, 22% the draw and 17% Santa Fe.
When and where is Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe being played?
30 October 2026 at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin, kick-off 01:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Atletico Nacional and Santa Fe?
Santa Fe 1-2 Atletico Nacional on 26 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Atletico Nacional and Santa Fe?
Atletico Nacional have taken 12 points from their last five (WWLWW), Santa Fe 7 from theirs (WLDW). Most recently Atletico Nacional took a 2-1 win at home to Independiente Medellin and Santa Fe a 2-1 win at home to Jaguares.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 2.00 for Atletico Nacional and 0.60 for Santa Fe. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 50%, so its call is no.