Chico vs Independiente Medellin: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 52% for Chico vs Independiente Medellin. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Independiente Medellin travel to Chico on 12 September 2026 at Estadio La Independencia, Tunja. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 52%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This clausura 10 fixture in Primera A is listed as Chico - Independiente Medellin. Kick-off is 23:10 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Chico: they come in on the back of a win, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and one defeat from the last four, worth 5 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (15 scored and 24 conceded in 17 matches, 0.88 and 1.41 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.4 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -17.
Independiente Medellin: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and one defeat from the last four, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (36 scored and 31 conceded in 27 matches, 1.33 and 1.15 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 65.5 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of +2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Chico | Independiente Medellin |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 11th |
| Goal difference | -17 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDDL | WWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 3 | 9 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 17 | 27 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.88 / 1.41 | 1.33 / 1.15 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.06 | 1.59 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 37.4 | 65.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 27% | 22% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Chico 37.4 versus Independiente Medellin 65.5, a gap of 28.1, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.40, over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 70%.
- First goal: Leans Chico's way at 53%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to a draw at 52%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Chico or Independiente Medellin?
Neither side. Our model splits it 27% Chico, 52% the draw and 22% Independiente Medellin, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Chico vs Independiente Medellin being played?
12 September 2026 at Estadio La Independencia, Tunja, kick-off 23:10 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Chico and Independiente Medellin?
Independiente Medellin 2-0 Chico on 22 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Chico and Independiente Medellin?
Chico have taken 5 points from their last four (WDDL), Independiente Medellin 9 from theirs (WWWL). Most recently Chico took a 2-0 win at home to Once Caldas and Independiente Medellin a 4-1 win away at Deportivo Pasto.
How many goals are expected in Chico vs Independiente Medellin?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.40 — 0.20 for Chico and 1.20 for Independiente Medellin. It rates over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 70%, so its call is yes.