Jaguares vs Fortaleza FC — form, head-to-head and match prediction
There is barely anything between Jaguares and Fortaleza FC on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
Fortaleza FC travel to Jaguares on 11 September 2026 at Estadio Jaraguay, Monteria. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 46%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This clausura 10 fixture in Primera A is listed as Jaguares - Fortaleza FC. Kick-off is 23:15 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Jaguares: they come in on two successive draws, following one win before that. That is one win, two draws and no defeats from the last three, worth 5 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (16 scored and 31 conceded in 18 matches, 0.89 and 1.72 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.8 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -13.
Fortaleza FC: they come in on the back of a draw, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and two defeats from the last four, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (19 scored and 25 conceded in 17 matches, 1.12 and 1.47 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 40.4 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -5.
Side by side
| Statistic | Jaguares | Fortaleza FC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 15th |
| Goal difference | -13 | -5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDW | DLDL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 5 | 4 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 18 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.89 / 1.72 | 1.12 / 1.47 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.78 | 1.12 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 41.8 | 40.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 41% | 13% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Jaguares 41.8 versus Fortaleza FC 40.4, a gap of 1.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.53, over 2.5 goals at 13% and both teams to score at 49%.
- First goal: Leans Jaguares' way at 68%.
The call
The model does not commit. A draw is the nominal pick at 46%, but the three results sit close to even. Jaguares' form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Jaguares or Fortaleza FC?
Neither side. Our model splits it 41% Jaguares, 46% the draw and 13% Fortaleza FC, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Jaguares vs Fortaleza FC being played?
11 September 2026 at Estadio Jaraguay, Monteria, kick-off 23:15 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Jaguares and Fortaleza FC?
Fortaleza FC 2-1 Jaguares on 05 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Jaguares and Fortaleza FC?
Jaguares have taken 5 points from their last three (DDW), Fortaleza FC 2 from theirs (DLDL). Most recently Jaguares took a 3-3 draw away at Junior and Fortaleza FC a 2-2 draw away at Santa Fe.
How many goals are expected in Jaguares vs Fortaleza FC?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.53 — 0.33 for Jaguares and 1.20 for Fortaleza FC. It rates over 2.5 goals at 13%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 49%, so its call is no.