Santa Fe vs Deportes Tolima: the numbers, the form and our prediction
There is barely anything between Santa Fe and Deportes Tolima on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Santa Fe host Deportes Tolima on 12 September 2026. Santa Fe are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This clausura 10 fixture in Primera A is listed as Santa Fe - Deportes Tolima. Kick-off is 01:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Santa Fe: they come in on two successive draws, following one win and one draw before that. That is one win, three draws and no defeats from the last four, worth 6 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (34 scored and 27 conceded in 27 matches, 1.26 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.8 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +7.
Deportes Tolima: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and one defeat from the last four, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (37 scored and 28 conceded in 31 matches, 1.19 and 0.9 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 60.8 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +10.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Santa Fe | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 6th |
| Goal difference | +7 | +10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDWD | WWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 5 | 5 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 27 | 31 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.26 / 1.0 | 1.19 / 0.9 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.3 | 1.45 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 56.8 | 60.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 46% | 11% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Santa Fe 56.8 versus Deportes Tolima 60.8, a gap of 4.1, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 9% and both teams to score at 37%.
- First goal: Leans Santa Fe's way at 68%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. Santa Fe is the nominal pick at 46%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Santa Fe or Deportes Tolima?
Santa Fe, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 46% Santa Fe, 44% the draw and 11% Deportes Tolima.
When and where is Santa Fe vs Deportes Tolima being played?
12 September 2026, kick-off 01:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Santa Fe and Deportes Tolima?
Deportes Tolima 2-2 Santa Fe on 05 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Santa Fe and Deportes Tolima?
Santa Fe have taken 6 points from their last four (DDWD), Deportes Tolima 7 from theirs (WWLD). Most recently Santa Fe took a 0-0 draw at home to Vasco DA Gama and Deportes Tolima a 2-1 win away at Llaneros.
How many goals are expected in Santa Fe vs Deportes Tolima?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.40 for Santa Fe and 0.60 for Deportes Tolima. It rates over 2.5 goals at 9%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 37%, so its call is no.