Deportes Tolima vs America de Cali match summary and prediction — Primera A
Our model makes America de Cali the pick at 49% for Deportes Tolima vs America de Cali. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
America de Cali travel to Deportes Tolima on 20 September 2026 at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, Iwag. America de Cali are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 49%. This clausura 11 fixture in Primera A is listed as Deportes Tolima - America de Cali. Kick-off is 23:10 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Deportes Tolima: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (37 scored and 28 conceded in 31 matches, 1.19 and 0.9 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 60.8 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +10.
America de Cali: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and one defeat from the last four, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (31 scored and 26 conceded in 27 matches, 1.15 and 0.96 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 54.2 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +10.
Side by side
| Statistic | Deportes Tolima | America de Cali |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 4th |
| Goal difference | +10 | +10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWLD | LWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 6 | 9 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 31 | 27 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.19 / 0.9 | 1.15 / 0.96 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.45 | 1.59 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 60.8 | 54.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 7% | 49% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Deportes Tolima 60.8 versus America de Cali 54.2, a gap of 6.7, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 12% and both teams to score at 29%.
- First goal: Leans America de Cali's way at 69%.
The call
The model edges towards America de Cali at 49%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Deportes Tolima or America de Cali?
America de Cali, with an implied win probability of roughly 49%. The full split is 7% Deportes Tolima, 44% the draw and 49% America de Cali.
When and where is Deportes Tolima vs America de Cali being played?
20 September 2026 at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, Iwag, kick-off 23:10 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Deportes Tolima and America de Cali?
America de Cali 1-1 Deportes Tolima on 15 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Deportes Tolima and America de Cali?
Deportes Tolima have taken 7 points from their last five (LWWLD), America de Cali 7 from theirs (LWWD). Most recently Deportes Tolima took a 0-1 defeat away at Santa Fe and America de Cali a 0-1 defeat at home to Deportivo Pasto.
How many goals are expected in Deportes Tolima vs America de Cali?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 0.60 for Deportes Tolima and 1.40 for America de Cali. It rates over 2.5 goals at 12%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 29%, so its call is no.