Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas match summary and prediction — Primera A
Our model makes a draw the pick at 48% for Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Deportivo Pasto face Once Caldas on 20 September 2026 at Estadio Departamental Libertad, Pasto. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 48%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This clausura 11 fixture in Primera A is listed as Deportivo Pasto - Once Caldas. Kick-off is 01:15 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Deportivo Pasto: they come in on the back of a win, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (23 scored and 25 conceded in 18 matches, 1.28 and 1.39 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 42.7 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +4.
Once Caldas: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (30 scored and 21 conceded in 19 matches, 1.58 and 1.11 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 43.9 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +9.
Side by side
| Statistic | Deportivo Pasto | Once Caldas |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 5th |
| Goal difference | +4 | +9 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLDLD | LWLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 9 | 5 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 18 | 19 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.28 / 1.39 | 1.58 / 1.11 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.5 | 1.63 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 42.7 | 43.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 38% | 14% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Deportivo Pasto 42.7 versus Once Caldas 43.9, a gap of 1.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 11% and both teams to score at 44%.
- First goal: Leans Deportivo Pasto's way at 66%.
The call
The model edges towards a draw at 48%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Deportivo Pasto or Once Caldas?
Neither side. Our model splits it 38% Deportivo Pasto, 48% the draw and 14% Once Caldas, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas being played?
20 September 2026 at Estadio Departamental Libertad, Pasto, kick-off 01:15 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Deportivo Pasto and Once Caldas?
Once Caldas 4-1 Deportivo Pasto on 13 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Deportivo Pasto and Once Caldas?
Deportivo Pasto have taken 5 points from their last five (WLDLD), Once Caldas 7 from theirs (LWLWD). Most recently Deportivo Pasto took a 1-0 win away at America de Cali and Once Caldas a 1-2 defeat at home to Deportivo Cali.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.00 for Deportivo Pasto and 1.20 for Once Caldas. It rates over 2.5 goals at 11%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 44%, so its call is no.