Chico vs Deportivo Pasto match summary and prediction — Primera A
Our model makes a draw the pick at 52% for Chico vs Deportivo Pasto. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Chico host Deportivo Pasto on 25 September 2026 at Estadio La Independencia, Tunja. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 52%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This clausura 12 fixture in Primera A is listed as Chico - Deportivo Pasto. Kick-off is 23:10 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Chico: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (19 scored and 34 conceded in 21 matches, 0.9 and 1.62 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.1 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -17.
Deportivo Pasto: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 33 conceded in 23 matches, 1.17 and 1.43 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.7 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Chico | Deportivo Pasto |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | -17 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWWD | WWLDL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 8 | 6 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 21 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.9 / 1.62 | 1.17 / 1.43 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.14 | 1.35 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 44.1 | 52.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 23% | 25% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Chico 44.1 versus Deportivo Pasto 52.7, a gap of 8.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 15 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.20, over 2.5 goals at 19% and both teams to score at 63%.
- First goal: Leans Chico's way at 51%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 52%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Deportivo Pasto's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Chico or Deportivo Pasto?
Neither side. Our model splits it 23% Chico, 52% the draw and 25% Deportivo Pasto, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Chico vs Deportivo Pasto being played?
25 September 2026 at Estadio La Independencia, Tunja, kick-off 23:10 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Chico and Deportivo Pasto?
Deportivo Pasto 2-0 Chico on 18 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Chico and Deportivo Pasto?
Chico have taken 7 points from their last five (LLWWD), Deportivo Pasto 7 from theirs (WWLDL). Most recently Chico took a 0-3 defeat away at Millonarios and Deportivo Pasto a 1-0 win at home to Once Caldas.
How many goals are expected in Chico vs Deportivo Pasto?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.20 — 0.20 for Chico and 1.00 for Deportivo Pasto. It rates over 2.5 goals at 19%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 63%, so its call is yes.