Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Deportivo Cali the pick at 72% for Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Deportivo Cali host Alianza Valledupar on 3 October 2026 at Estadio Deportivo Cali, Palmira. Deportivo Cali are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 72%. This clausura 13 fixture in Primera A is listed as Deportivo Cali - Alianza Valledupar. Kick-off is 00:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Deportivo Cali: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (22 scored and 17 conceded in 20 matches, 1.1 and 0.85 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 69.3 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +4.
Alianza Valledupar: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 36 conceded in 24 matches, 0.75 and 1.5 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 51.5 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -14.
Side by side
| Statistic | Deportivo Cali | Alianza Valledupar |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 17th |
| Goal difference | +4 | -14 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWD | WLWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 13 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 2 | 6 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 20 | 24 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.1 / 0.85 | 0.75 / 1.5 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.5 | 0.88 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 69.3 | 51.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 72% | 4% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Deportivo Cali 69.3 versus Alianza Valledupar 51.5, a gap of 17.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.40, over 2.5 goals at 11% and both teams to score at 26%.
- First goal: Leans Deportivo Cali's way at 79%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Deportivo Cali at 72%, a gap of 48 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Deportivo Cali's way, especially at Estadio Deportivo Cali.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Deportivo Cali or Alianza Valledupar?
Deportivo Cali, with an implied win probability of roughly 72%. The full split is 72% Deportivo Cali, 24% the draw and 4% Alianza Valledupar.
When and where is Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar being played?
3 October 2026 at Estadio Deportivo Cali, Palmira, kick-off 00:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Deportivo Cali and Alianza Valledupar?
Alianza Valledupar 1-0 Deportivo Cali on 22 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Deportivo Cali and Alianza Valledupar?
Deportivo Cali have taken 13 points from their last five (WWWWD), Alianza Valledupar 9 from theirs (WLWWL). Most recently Deportivo Cali took a 2-0 win at home to Águilas Doradas and Alianza Valledupar a 2-1 win away at Jaguares.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.40 — 1.00 for Deportivo Cali and 0.40 for Alianza Valledupar. It rates over 2.5 goals at 11%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 26%, so its call is no.