Deportes Tolima vs Chico — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Deportes Tolima the pick at 73% for Deportes Tolima vs Chico. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Deportes Tolima face Chico on 3 October 2026 at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro. Deportes Tolima are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 73%. This clausura 13 fixture in Primera A is listed as Deportes Tolima - Chico. Kick-off is 21:05 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Deportes Tolima: they come in on two successive draws, following one win and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (50 scored and 41 conceded in 40 matches, 1.25 and 1.02 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.2 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +10.
Chico: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (19 scored and 34 conceded in 21 matches, 0.9 and 1.62 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 50.8 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -17.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Deportes Tolima | Chico |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 18th |
| Goal difference | +10 | -17 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDLLW | WLLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 6 | 8 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 40 | 21 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.25 / 1.02 | 0.9 / 1.62 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.5 | 1.14 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 44.2 | 50.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 73% | 4% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Deportes Tolima 44.2 versus Chico 50.8, a gap of 6.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Twelve places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 0.80, over 2.5 goals at 6% and both teams to score at 19%.
- First goal: Leans Deportes Tolima's way at 84%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Deportes Tolima at 73%, a gap of 50 percentage points to the next outcome. Chico's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Deportes Tolima's way, especially at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Deportes Tolima or Chico?
Deportes Tolima, with an implied win probability of roughly 73%. The full split is 73% Deportes Tolima, 23% the draw and 4% Chico.
When and where is Deportes Tolima vs Chico being played?
3 October 2026 at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, kick-off 21:05 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Deportes Tolima and Chico?
Chico 1-1 Deportes Tolima on 23 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Deportes Tolima and Chico?
Deportes Tolima have taken 5 points from their last five (DDLLW), Chico 9 from theirs (WLLWW). Most recently Deportes Tolima took a 2-2 draw away at Fortaleza FC and Chico a 3-0 win at home to Deportivo Pasto.
How many goals are expected in Deportes Tolima vs Chico?
The model's combined scoring line is 0.80 — 0.60 for Deportes Tolima and 0.20 for Chico. It rates over 2.5 goals at 6%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 19%, so its call is no.