Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto match summary and prediction — Primera A
Our model makes Atletico Nacional the pick at 56% for Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Deportivo Pasto travel to Atletico Nacional on 23 October 2026 at Estadio Atanasio Girardot. Atletico Nacional are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 56%. This clausura 14 fixture in Primera A is listed as Atletico Nacional - Deportivo Pasto. Kick-off is 01:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Atletico Nacional: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (50 scored and 24 conceded in 27 matches, 1.85 and 0.89 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.7 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +20.
Deportivo Pasto: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 33 conceded in 23 matches, 1.17 and 1.43 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.7 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Atletico Nacional | Deportivo Pasto |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +20 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDWD | DLWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 5 | 3 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 27 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.85 / 0.89 | 1.17 / 1.43 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.15 | 1.35 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 56.7 | 52.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 56% | 8% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Atletico Nacional 56.7 versus Deportivo Pasto 52.7, a gap of 4.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 26% and both teams to score at 37%.
- First goal: Leans Atletico Nacional's way at 72%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Atletico Nacional at 56%, a gap of 21 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Atletico Nacional's way, especially at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Atletico Nacional or Deportivo Pasto?
Atletico Nacional, with an implied win probability of roughly 56%. The full split is 56% Atletico Nacional, 36% the draw and 8% Deportivo Pasto.
When and where is Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto being played?
23 October 2026 at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, kick-off 01:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pasto?
Deportivo Pasto 1-2 Atletico Nacional on 29 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pasto?
Atletico Nacional have taken 11 points from their last five (WWDWD), Deportivo Pasto 7 from theirs (DLWWL). Most recently Atletico Nacional took a 4-1 win away at Chico and Deportivo Pasto a 0-0 draw at home to Fortaleza FC.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 0.80 for Atletico Nacional and 1.00 for Deportivo Pasto. It rates over 2.5 goals at 26%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 37%, so its call is no.