Chico vs Bucaramanga — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Chico the pick at 55% for Chico vs Bucaramanga. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Bucaramanga travel to Chico on 23 October 2026 at Estadio La Independencia, Tunja. Chico are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 55%. This clausura 16 fixture in Primera A is listed as Chico - Bucaramanga. Kick-off is 23:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Chico: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (19 scored and 34 conceded in 21 matches, 0.9 and 1.62 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.1 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -17.
Bucaramanga: they come in on two successive draws, following three wins before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (28 scored and 25 conceded in 22 matches, 1.27 and 1.14 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 63.2 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of +6.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Chico | Bucaramanga |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 13th |
| Goal difference | -17 | +6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDWL | DDWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 11 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 8 | 10 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 21 | 22 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.9 / 1.62 | 1.27 / 1.14 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.14 | 1.14 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 34.1 | 63.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 55% | 9% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Chico 34.1 versus Bucaramanga 63.2, a gap of 29.1, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.20, over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Chico's way at 69%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Chico at 55%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Bucaramanga's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Chico's way, especially at Estadio La Independencia.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Chico or Bucaramanga?
Chico, with an implied win probability of roughly 55%. The full split is 55% Chico, 36% the draw and 9% Bucaramanga.
When and where is Chico vs Bucaramanga being played?
23 October 2026 at Estadio La Independencia, Tunja, kick-off 23:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Chico and Bucaramanga?
Bucaramanga 3-0 Chico on 12 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Chico and Bucaramanga?
Chico have taken 4 points from their last five (LLDWL), Bucaramanga 11 from theirs (DDWWW). Most recently Chico took a 1-4 defeat at home to Atletico Nacional and Bucaramanga a 1-1 draw at home to America de Cali.
How many goals are expected in Chico vs Bucaramanga?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.20 — 0.20 for Chico and 1.00 for Bucaramanga. It rates over 2.5 goals at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.