Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Deportes Tolima the pick at 58% for Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Deportivo Pasto travel to Deportes Tolima on 26 October 2026 at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro. Deportes Tolima are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 58%. This clausura 16 fixture in Primera A is listed as Deportes Tolima - Deportivo Pasto. Kick-off is 01:15 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Deportes Tolima: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following three draws before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (51 scored and 43 conceded in 41 matches, 1.24 and 1.05 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.5 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +10.
Deportivo Pasto: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 33 conceded in 23 matches, 1.17 and 1.43 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.3 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Deportes Tolima | Deportivo Pasto |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +10 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDDD | LLDLW |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 7 | 1 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 41 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.24 / 1.05 | 1.17 / 1.43 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.46 | 1.35 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 37.5 | 39.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 58% | 21% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 3) | 2 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 3): Deportes Tolima two wins, Deportivo Pasto one win, none draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Deportivo Pasto 0-2 Deportes Tolima on 13 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.33 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in none of the three — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Deportes Tolima 37.5 versus Deportivo Pasto 39.3, a gap of 1.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Deportes Tolima's way at 64%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Deportes Tolima at 58%, a gap of 37 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Deportes Tolima's way, especially at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Deportes Tolima or Deportivo Pasto?
Deportes Tolima, with an implied win probability of roughly 58%. The full split is 58% Deportes Tolima, 21% the draw and 21% Deportivo Pasto.
When and where is Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto being played?
26 October 2026 at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, kick-off 01:15 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Deportes Tolima and Deportivo Pasto?
Deportivo Pasto 0-2 Deportes Tolima on 13 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Deportes Tolima and Deportivo Pasto?
Deportes Tolima have taken 3 points from their last five (LLDDD), Deportivo Pasto 4 from theirs (LLDLW). Most recently Deportes Tolima took a 1-2 defeat away at Águilas Doradas and Deportivo Pasto a 0-3 defeat away at Atletico Nacional.
How many goals are expected in Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.20 for Deportes Tolima and 0.80 for Deportivo Pasto. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.