Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Independiente Medellin the pick at 64% for Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Independiente Medellin face Alianza Valledupar on 1 November 2026 at Estadio Atanasio Girardot. Independiente Medellin are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 64%. This clausura 17 fixture in Primera A is listed as Independiente Medellin - Alianza Valledupar. Kick-off is 23:10 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Independiente Medellin: they come in on four defeats in a row, following one win before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (46 scored and 43 conceded in 35 matches, 1.31 and 1.23 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.5 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of +2.
Alianza Valledupar: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (19 scored and 37 conceded in 26 matches, 0.73 and 1.42 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.8 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -14.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Independiente Medellin | Alianza Valledupar |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 17th |
| Goal difference | +2 | -14 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLLW | LWWDL |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 11 | 5 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 35 | 26 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.31 / 1.23 | 0.73 / 1.42 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.49 | 0.92 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.5 | 44.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 64% | 13% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Independiente Medellin 35.5 versus Alianza Valledupar 44.8, a gap of 9.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.60, over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 49%.
- First goal: Leans Independiente Medellin's way at 67%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Independiente Medellin at 64%, a gap of 40 percentage points to the next outcome. Alianza Valledupar's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Independiente Medellin's way, especially at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Independiente Medellin or Alianza Valledupar?
Independiente Medellin, with an implied win probability of roughly 64%. The full split is 64% Independiente Medellin, 23% the draw and 13% Alianza Valledupar.
When and where is Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar being played?
1 November 2026 at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, kick-off 23:10 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Independiente Medellin and Alianza Valledupar?
Alianza Valledupar 0-1 Independiente Medellin on 19 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Independiente Medellin and Alianza Valledupar?
Independiente Medellin have taken 3 points from their last five (LLLLW), Alianza Valledupar 7 from theirs (LWWDL). Most recently Independiente Medellin took a 1-3 defeat away at Internacional de Bogota and Alianza Valledupar a 0-1 defeat away at Once Caldas.
How many goals are expected in Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.60 — 1.20 for Independiente Medellin and 0.40 for Alianza Valledupar. It rates over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 49%, so its call is no.