Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Deportes Tolima the pick at 43% for Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Deportes Tolima host Millonarios on 8 November 2026 at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro. Deportes Tolima are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 43%. This clausura 18 fixture in Primera A is listed as Deportes Tolima - Millonarios. Kick-off is 23:10 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Deportes Tolima: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (54 scored and 45 conceded in 43 matches, 1.26 and 1.05 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 40.8 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +10.
Millonarios: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win and three draws before that. That is one win, four draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (46 scored and 32 conceded in 30 matches, 1.53 and 1.07 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 50.3 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of +8.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Deportes Tolima | Millonarios |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 10th |
| Goal difference | +10 | +8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLLD | DWDDD |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 7 | 9 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 43 | 30 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.26 / 1.05 | 1.53 / 1.07 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.47 | 1.6 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 40.8 | 50.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 43% | 37% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Deportes Tolima 40.8 versus Millonarios 50.3, a gap of 9.5, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Deportes Tolima's way at 56%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Deportes Tolima at 43%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Millonarios' stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Deportes Tolima's way, especially at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Deportes Tolima or Millonarios?
Deportes Tolima, with an implied win probability of roughly 43%. The full split is 43% Deportes Tolima, 20% the draw and 37% Millonarios.
When and where is Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios being played?
8 November 2026 at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, kick-off 23:10 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Deportes Tolima and Millonarios?
Millonarios 2-0 Deportes Tolima on 24 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Deportes Tolima and Millonarios?
Deportes Tolima have taken 4 points from their last five (WLLLD), Millonarios 7 from theirs (DWDDD). Most recently Deportes Tolima took a 3-1 win away at Deportivo Pereira and Millonarios a 1-1 draw at home to Once Caldas.
How many goals are expected in Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 1.20 for Deportes Tolima and 1.60 for Millonarios. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.