Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin: the numbers, the form and our prediction
There is barely anything between Fortaleza FC and Independiente Medellin on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Independiente Medellin travel to Fortaleza FC on 7 November 2026 at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo. Independiente Medellin are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 37%. This clausura 18 fixture in Primera A is listed as Fortaleza FC - Independiente Medellin. Kick-off is 01:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Fortaleza FC: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (30 scored and 39 conceded in 27 matches, 1.11 and 1.44 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 30.4 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -5.
Independiente Medellin: they come in on the back of a win, following four defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (48 scored and 44 conceded in 36 matches, 1.33 and 1.22 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.5 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of +2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Fortaleza FC | Independiente Medellin |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 11th |
| Goal difference | -5 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDLD | WLLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 8 | 6 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 27 | 36 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.11 / 1.44 | 1.33 / 1.22 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.0 | 1.53 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 30.4 | 45.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 34% | 37% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Fortaleza FC 30.4 versus Independiente Medellin 45.5, a gap of 15.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Independiente Medellin's way at 48%.
The call
The model does not commit. Independiente Medellin is the nominal pick at 37%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Fortaleza FC or Independiente Medellin?
Independiente Medellin, with an implied win probability of roughly 37%. The full split is 34% Fortaleza FC, 29% the draw and 37% Independiente Medellin.
When and where is Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin being played?
7 November 2026 at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo, kick-off 01:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Fortaleza FC and Independiente Medellin?
Independiente Medellin 1-0 Fortaleza FC on 26 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Fortaleza FC and Independiente Medellin?
Fortaleza FC have taken 2 points from their last five (LLDLD), Independiente Medellin 3 from theirs (WLLLL). Most recently Fortaleza FC took a 0-1 defeat away at Águilas Doradas and Independiente Medellin a 2-1 win at home to Alianza Valledupar.
How many goals are expected in Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.20 for Fortaleza FC and 1.00 for Independiente Medellin. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.