Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto match summary and prediction — Primera A
Our model makes Santa Fe the pick at 55% for Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Deportivo Pasto travel to Santa Fe on 8 November 2026. Santa Fe are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 55%. This clausura 18 fixture in Primera A is listed as Santa Fe - Deportivo Pasto. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Santa Fe: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (52 scored and 42 conceded in 40 matches, 1.3 and 1.05 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.8 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +7.
Deportivo Pasto: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (31 scored and 38 conceded in 27 matches, 1.15 and 1.41 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.0 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Santa Fe | Deportivo Pasto |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +7 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWWL | WLWLL |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 7 | 4 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 40 | 27 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.3 / 1.05 | 1.15 / 1.41 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.4 | 1.37 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 56.8 | 46.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 55% | 18% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Santa Fe 56.8 versus Deportivo Pasto 46.0, a gap of 10.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 49%.
- First goal: Leans Santa Fe's way at 63%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Santa Fe at 55%, a gap of 29 percentage points to the next outcome. Deportivo Pasto's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Santa Fe or Deportivo Pasto?
Santa Fe, with an implied win probability of roughly 55%. The full split is 55% Santa Fe, 26% the draw and 18% Deportivo Pasto.
When and where is Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto being played?
8 November 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Santa Fe and Deportivo Pasto?
Deportivo Pasto 1-2 Santa Fe on 23 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Santa Fe and Deportivo Pasto?
Santa Fe have taken 6 points from their last five (LLWWL), Deportivo Pasto 6 from theirs (WLWLL). Most recently Santa Fe took a 0-2 defeat at home to Once Caldas and Deportivo Pasto a 2-0 win at home to Jaguares.
How many goals are expected in Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 0.80 for Santa Fe and 1.00 for Deportivo Pasto. It rates over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 49%, so its call is no.