Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Atletico Nacional the pick at 55% for Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Atletico Nacional face Once Caldas on 12 November 2026 at Estadio Atanasio Girardot. Atletico Nacional are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 55%. This clausura 19 fixture in Primera A is listed as Atletico Nacional - Once Caldas. Kick-off is 21:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Atletico Nacional: they come in on the back of a win, following three wins and one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (62 scored and 29 conceded in 32 matches, 1.94 and 0.91 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 73.3 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +20.
Once Caldas: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (46 scored and 32 conceded in 30 matches, 1.53 and 1.07 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 63.9 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +9.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Atletico Nacional | Once Caldas |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 5th |
| Goal difference | +20 | +9 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWWW | WWWDD |
| Points from last 5 | 13 | 11 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 5 | 6 / 2 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 32 | 30 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.94 / 0.91 | 1.53 / 1.07 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.22 | 1.63 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 73.3 | 63.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 55% | 21% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Atletico Nacional 73.3 versus Once Caldas 63.9, a gap of 9.4, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.60, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Atletico Nacional's way at 64%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Atletico Nacional at 55%, a gap of 31 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Atletico Nacional's way, especially at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Atletico Nacional or Once Caldas?
Atletico Nacional, with an implied win probability of roughly 55%. The full split is 55% Atletico Nacional, 24% the draw and 21% Once Caldas.
When and where is Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas being played?
12 November 2026 at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, kick-off 21:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Atletico Nacional and Once Caldas?
Once Caldas 1-0 Atletico Nacional on 01 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Atletico Nacional and Once Caldas?
Atletico Nacional have taken 13 points from their last five (WDWWW), Once Caldas 11 from theirs (WWWDD). Most recently Atletico Nacional took a 4-3 win at home to Deportivo Pereira and Once Caldas a 1-0 win at home to Águilas Doradas.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.60 — 2.40 for Atletico Nacional and 1.20 for Once Caldas. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.