Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Millonarios the pick at 67% for Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Millonarios host Alianza Valledupar on 12 November 2026. Millonarios are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 67%. This clausura 19 fixture in Primera A is listed as Millonarios - Alianza Valledupar. Kick-off is 21:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Millonarios: they come in on two successive draws, following one win and two draws before that. That is one win, four draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (46 scored and 32 conceded in 31 matches, 1.48 and 1.03 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 50.3 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of +8.
Alianza Valledupar: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 39 conceded in 27 matches, 0.74 and 1.44 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.8 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -14.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Millonarios | Alianza Valledupar |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 17th |
| Goal difference | +8 | -14 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDWDD | LLWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 4 | 5 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 31 | 27 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.48 / 1.03 | 0.74 / 1.44 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.58 | 0.89 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 50.3 | 44.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 67% | 11% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Millonarios 50.3 versus Alianza Valledupar 44.8, a gap of 5.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Millonarios' way at 73%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Millonarios at 67%, a gap of 46 percentage points to the next outcome. Millonarios' form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Millonarios or Alianza Valledupar?
Millonarios, with an implied win probability of roughly 67%. The full split is 67% Millonarios, 22% the draw and 11% Alianza Valledupar.
When and where is Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar being played?
12 November 2026, kick-off 21:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Millonarios and Alianza Valledupar?
Alianza Valledupar 2-2 Millonarios on 03 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Millonarios and Alianza Valledupar?
Millonarios have taken 7 points from their last five (DDWDD), Alianza Valledupar 7 from theirs (LLWWD). Most recently Millonarios took a 0-0 draw at home to America de Cali and Alianza Valledupar a 1-2 defeat away at Independiente Medellin.
How many goals are expected in Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 1.20 for Millonarios and 0.60 for Alianza Valledupar. It rates over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.