Atalanta vs Cagliari — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Atalanta the pick at 80% for Atalanta vs Cagliari. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Atalanta face Cagliari on 12 September 2026 at New Balance Arena, Bergamo. Atalanta are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 80%. This matchday 4 fixture in Serie A is listed as Atalanta - Cagliari. Kick-off is 18:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Atalanta: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (63 scored and 57 conceded in 46 matches, 1.37 and 1.24 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.2 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +1.
Cagliari: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (28 scored and 36 conceded in 25 matches, 1.12 and 1.44 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.2 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Atalanta | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 9th |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWWD | WLLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 3 | 4 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 46 | 25 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.37 / 1.24 | 1.12 / 1.44 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.61 | 1.16 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.2 | 45.2 |
| Players unavailable | 6 | 10 |
| Model win probability | 80% | 2% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 6) | 3 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 6): Atalanta three wins, Cagliari two wins, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Cagliari 3-2 Atalanta on 27 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.33 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the six — broadly an average game for goals.
- Availability: Cagliari carry the heavier absentee list, ten players to six.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 22% and both teams to score at 37%.
- First goal: Leans Atalanta's way at 78%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Atalanta at 80%, a gap of 62 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Atalanta's way, especially at New Balance Arena.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Atalanta or Cagliari?
Atalanta, with an implied win probability of roughly 80%. The full split is 80% Atalanta, 18% the draw and 2% Cagliari.
When and where is Atalanta vs Cagliari being played?
12 September 2026 at New Balance Arena, Bergamo, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Atalanta and Cagliari?
Cagliari 3-2 Atalanta on 27 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Atalanta and Cagliari?
Atalanta have taken 10 points from their last five (LWWWD), Cagliari 9 from theirs (WLLWW). Most recently Atalanta took a 1-2 defeat away at AS Roma and Cagliari a 1-0 win at home to Lecce.
How many goals are expected in Atalanta vs Cagliari?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.60 for Atalanta and 0.60 for Cagliari. It rates over 2.5 goals at 22%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 37%, so its call is no.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists six players unavailable for Atalanta and ten for Cagliari at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.