Napoli vs Bologna: match summary, form and prediction
Napoli host Bologna with a season still short of where it should be — 12th in Serie A and three games without a win. Form, comparison data, head-to-head and our model's read.
Match summary
Napoli host Bologna on 13 September 2026 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples. Napoli are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 69%. This matchday 4 fixture in Serie A is listed as Napoli - Bologna. Kick-off is 16:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Napoli: they come in on three defeats in a row, following two wins before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (55 scored and 49 conceded in 40 matches, 1.38 and 1.23 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.0 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of 0. For a club of Napoli's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Bologna: they come in on the back of a draw, following four defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (46 scored and 52 conceded in 41 matches, 1.12 and 1.27 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 27.8 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Napoli | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 15th |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLWW | DLLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 1 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 8 | 3 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 40 | 41 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.38 / 1.23 | 1.12 / 1.27 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.7 | 1.37 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.0 | 27.8 |
| Players unavailable | 14 | 4 |
| Model win probability | 69% | 5% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 8) | 2 | 3 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 8): Napoli two wins, Bologna three wins, three draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Napoli 2-3 Bologna on 11 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the eight — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Napoli 35.0 versus Bologna 27.8, a gap of 7.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Big club, bad season: Napoli are 12th with a goal difference of 0 and three games without a win — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Availability: Napoli carry the heavier absentee list, 14 players to four.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.60, over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 35%.
- First goal: Leans Napoli's way at 73%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Napoli at 69%, a gap of 42 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Napoli's way, especially at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Napoli or Bologna?
Napoli, with an implied win probability of roughly 69%. The full split is 69% Napoli, 26% the draw and 5% Bologna.
When and where is Napoli vs Bologna being played?
13 September 2026 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Napoli and Bologna?
Napoli 2-3 Bologna on 11 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Napoli and Bologna?
Napoli have taken 6 points from their last five (LLLWW), Bologna 1 from theirs (DLLLL). Most recently Napoli took a 0-1 defeat at home to Arsenal and Bologna a 2-2 draw at home to Sassuolo.
How many goals are expected in Napoli vs Bologna?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.60 — 2.60 for Napoli and 1.00 for Bologna. It rates over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 35%, so its call is no.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists 14 players unavailable for Napoli and four for Bologna at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.