Sassuolo vs Juventus: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Sassuolo the pick at 50% for Sassuolo vs Juventus. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Sassuolo host Juventus on 13 September 2026. Sassuolo are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 50%. This matchday 4 fixture in Serie A is listed as Sassuolo - Juventus. Kick-off is 18:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Sassuolo: they come in on two successive draws, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (28 scored and 31 conceded in 23 matches, 1.22 and 1.35 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.3 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of 0.
Juventus: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (71 scored and 48 conceded in 41 matches, 1.73 and 1.17 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.1 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Sassuolo | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 6th |
| Goal difference | 0 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDWLW | DWWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 6 | 7 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 23 | 41 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.22 / 1.35 | 1.73 / 1.17 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.26 | 1.68 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 38.3 | 49.1 |
| Players unavailable | 16 | 18 |
| Model win probability | 50% | 10% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 6) | 2 | 3 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 6): Sassuolo two wins, Juventus three wins, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Juventus 1-1 Sassuolo on 21 March 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the six — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Sassuolo 38.3 versus Juventus 49.1, a gap of 10.7, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.20, over 2.5 goals at 10% and both teams to score at 35%.
- First goal: Leans Sassuolo's way at 68%.
The call
The model edges towards Sassuolo at 50%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Sassuolo or Juventus?
Sassuolo, with an implied win probability of roughly 50%. The full split is 50% Sassuolo, 40% the draw and 10% Juventus.
When and where is Sassuolo vs Juventus being played?
13 September 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Sassuolo and Juventus?
Juventus 1-1 Sassuolo on 21 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Sassuolo and Juventus?
Sassuolo have taken 8 points from their last five (DDWLW), Juventus 10 from theirs (DWWWL). Most recently Sassuolo took a 2-2 draw away at Bologna and Juventus a 1-1 draw at home to AC Milan.
How many goals are expected in Sassuolo vs Juventus?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.20 — 0.80 for Sassuolo and 0.40 for Juventus. It rates over 2.5 goals at 10%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 35%, so its call is no.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists 16 players unavailable for Sassuolo and 18 for Juventus at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.