Fiorentina vs Napoli — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Fiorentina host Napoli with a season still short of where it should be — 15th in Serie A and searching for consistency. Form, comparison data, head-to-head and our model's read.
The fixture at a glance
Napoli travel to Fiorentina on 20 September 2026 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 50%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 5 fixture in Serie A is listed as Fiorentina - Napoli. Kick-off is 10:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Fiorentina: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (43 scored and 44 conceded in 32 matches, 1.34 and 1.38 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 33.5 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -6. For a club of Fiorentina's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Napoli: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (55 scored and 49 conceded in 40 matches, 1.38 and 1.23 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.2 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of +1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Fiorentina | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 10th |
| Goal difference | -6 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWLLL | WLLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 11 | 6 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 32 | 40 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.34 / 1.38 | 1.38 / 1.23 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.38 | 1.7 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 33.5 | 45.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 20% | 30% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 7) | 1 | 4 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 7): Fiorentina one win, Napoli four wins, two draws — an edge to Napoli.
- Most recent meeting: Napoli 2-1 Fiorentina on 31 January 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.57 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in four of the seven — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Fiorentina 33.5 versus Napoli 45.2, a gap of 11.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Big club, bad season: Fiorentina are 15th with a goal difference of -6 and no settled run of results — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 79% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans Napoli's way at 52%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to a draw at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Napoli's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Fiorentina or Napoli?
Neither side. Our model splits it 20% Fiorentina, 50% the draw and 30% Napoli, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Fiorentina vs Napoli being played?
20 September 2026 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence, kick-off 10:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Fiorentina and Napoli?
Napoli 2-1 Fiorentina on 31 January 2026.
What is the recent form of Fiorentina and Napoli?
Fiorentina have taken 6 points from their last five (WWLLL), Napoli 6 from theirs (WLLLW). Most recently Fiorentina took a 3-0 win at home to Pisa and Napoli a 1-0 win at home to Bologna.
How many goals are expected in Fiorentina vs Napoli?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 0.40 for Fiorentina and 2.60 for Napoli. It rates over 2.5 goals at 79%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.