Parma vs Genoa match summary and prediction — Serie A
Our model makes a draw the pick at 49% for Parma vs Genoa. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Genoa travel to Parma on 20 September 2026 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 49%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 5 fixture in Serie A is listed as Parma - Genoa. Kick-off is 13:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Parma: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 32 conceded in 23 matches, 0.74 and 1.39 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 27.3 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -4.
Genoa: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (29 scored and 33 conceded in 24 matches, 1.21 and 1.38 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 26.8 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of -6.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Parma | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th | 19th |
| Goal difference | -4 | -6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLLL | WDLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 1 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 2 / 8 | 3 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 23 | 24 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.74 / 1.39 | 1.21 / 1.38 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.09 | 1.17 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 27.3 | 26.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 33% | 19% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 2 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Parma none wins, Genoa two wins, none draws — an edge to Genoa.
- Most recent meeting: Genoa 1-0 Parma on 12 January 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in none of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 22% and both teams to score at 69%.
- First goal: Leans Parma's way at 56%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Parma or Genoa?
Neither side. Our model splits it 33% Parma, 49% the draw and 19% Genoa, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Parma vs Genoa being played?
20 September 2026 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Parma and Genoa?
Genoa 1-0 Parma on 12 January 2025.
What is the recent form of Parma and Genoa?
Parma have taken 1 points from their last five (LDLLL), Genoa 4 from theirs (WDLLL). Most recently Parma took a 1-2 defeat away at Como and Genoa a 1-0 win at home to Sudtirol.
How many goals are expected in Parma vs Genoa?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 1.20 for Parma and 0.60 for Genoa. It rates over 2.5 goals at 22%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 69%, so its call is yes.