Cagliari vs Bologna: the numbers, the form and our prediction
There is barely anything between Cagliari and Bologna on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Cagliari host Bologna on 24 October 2026 at Unipol Domus, Cagliari. Bologna are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 38%. This matchday 8 fixture in Serie A is listed as Cagliari - Bologna. Kick-off is 13:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Cagliari: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (28 scored and 36 conceded in 25 matches, 1.12 and 1.44 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.1 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of -1.
Bologna: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (46 scored and 52 conceded in 41 matches, 1.12 and 1.27 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 40.7 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Cagliari | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 15th |
| Goal difference | -1 | -4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDWWW | LWDLD |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 6 | 6 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 25 | 41 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.12 / 1.44 | 1.12 / 1.27 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.16 | 1.37 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 58.1 | 40.7 |
| Players unavailable | 6 | 6 |
| Model win probability | 36% | 38% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 5): Cagliari one win, Bologna three wins, one draw — an edge to Bologna.
- Most recent meeting: Bologna 0-0 Cagliari on 03 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.2 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the five — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Cagliari 58.1 versus Bologna 40.7, a gap of 17.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.40, over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Bologna's way at 48%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. Bologna is the nominal pick at 38%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Cagliari or Bologna?
Bologna, with an implied win probability of roughly 38%. The full split is 36% Cagliari, 26% the draw and 38% Bologna.
When and where is Cagliari vs Bologna being played?
24 October 2026 at Unipol Domus, Cagliari, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Cagliari and Bologna?
Bologna 0-0 Cagliari on 03 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Cagliari and Bologna?
Cagliari have taken 10 points from their last five (LDWWW), Bologna 5 from theirs (LWDLD). Most recently Cagliari took a 0-4 defeat away at Monza and Bologna a 1-3 defeat at home to Inter.
How many goals are expected in Cagliari vs Bologna?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.40 — 1.60 for Cagliari and 1.80 for Bologna. It rates over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists six players unavailable for Cagliari and six for Bologna at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.