Lazio vs Parma — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Lazio the pick at 71% for Lazio vs Parma. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Parma travel to Lazio on 24 October 2026 at Stadio Olimpico, Rome. Lazio are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 71%. This matchday 8 fixture in Serie A is listed as Lazio - Parma. Kick-off is 18:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Lazio: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two wins and one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (30 scored and 32 conceded in 26 matches, 1.15 and 1.23 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 70.8 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +10.
Parma: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 32 conceded in 23 matches, 0.74 and 1.39 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 36.1 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of -9.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Lazio | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 19th |
| Goal difference | +10 | -9 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDWW | LLWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 13 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 13 / 4 | 4 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 26 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.15 / 1.23 | 0.74 / 1.39 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.42 | 1.09 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 70.8 | 36.1 |
| Players unavailable | 12 | 8 |
| Model win probability | 71% | 11% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 1 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Lazio one win, Parma one win, two draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Lazio 1-1 Parma on 04 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.75 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the four — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Lazio 70.8 versus Parma 36.1, a gap of 34.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 17 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: Lazio carry the heavier absentee list, twelve players to eight.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 49%.
- First goal: Leans Lazio's way at 72%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Lazio at 71%, a gap of 52 percentage points to the next outcome. Lazio's form line and home advantage back it, the goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Lazio's way, especially at Stadio Olimpico.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Lazio or Parma?
Lazio, with an implied win probability of roughly 71%. The full split is 71% Lazio, 18% the draw and 11% Parma.
When and where is Lazio vs Parma being played?
24 October 2026 at Stadio Olimpico, Rome, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Lazio and Parma?
Lazio 1-1 Parma on 04 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Lazio and Parma?
Lazio have taken 13 points from their last five (WWDWW), Parma 4 from theirs (LLWLD). Most recently Lazio took a 3-0 win away at Juventus and Parma a 0-3 defeat at home to Torino.
How many goals are expected in Lazio vs Parma?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.80 for Lazio and 0.60 for Parma. It rates over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 49%, so its call is no.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists twelve players unavailable for Lazio and eight for Parma at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.