Napoli vs AS Roma — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes AS Roma the pick at 45% for Napoli vs AS Roma. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Napoli face AS Roma on 24 October 2026 at Maradona Stadium, Naples. AS Roma are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 45%. This matchday 8 fixture in Serie A is listed as Napoli - AS Roma. Kick-off is 16:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Napoli: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (55 scored and 49 conceded in 40 matches, 1.38 and 1.23 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.1 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +3.
AS Roma: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (52 scored and 30 conceded in 31 matches, 1.68 and 0.97 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 64.9 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +13.
Side by side
| Statistic | Napoli | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +3 | +13 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLWD | WWLDD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 8 | 11 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 40 | 31 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.38 / 1.23 | 1.68 / 0.97 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.7 | 1.77 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 49.1 | 64.9 |
| Players unavailable | 10 | 10 |
| Model win probability | 29% | 45% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 6) | 3 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 6): Napoli three wins, AS Roma one win, two draws — an edge to Napoli.
- Most recent meeting: AS Roma 1-1 Napoli on 02 February 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.17 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the six — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Napoli 49.1 versus AS Roma 64.9, a gap of 15.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans AS Roma's way at 54%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to AS Roma at 45%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Napoli or AS Roma?
AS Roma, with an implied win probability of roughly 45%. The full split is 29% Napoli, 26% the draw and 45% AS Roma.
When and where is Napoli vs AS Roma being played?
24 October 2026 at Maradona Stadium, Naples, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Napoli and AS Roma?
AS Roma 1-1 Napoli on 02 February 2025.
What is the recent form of Napoli and AS Roma?
Napoli have taken 7 points from their last five (WLLWD), AS Roma 8 from theirs (WWLDD). Most recently Napoli took a 4-3 win at home to Bodo/Glimt and AS Roma a 4-0 win at home to Slovan Bratislava.
How many goals are expected in Napoli vs AS Roma?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 1.40 for Napoli and 1.80 for AS Roma. It rates over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists ten players unavailable for Napoli and ten for AS Roma at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.