Torino vs Monza: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Torino the pick at 58% for Torino vs Monza. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Torino host Monza on 23 October 2026 at Stadio Olimpico di Torino, Turin. Torino are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 58%. This matchday 8 fixture in Serie A is listed as Torino - Monza. Kick-off is 18:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Torino: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 34 conceded in 21 matches, 1.29 and 1.62 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 47.8 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -2.
Monza: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (36 scored and 19 conceded in 22 matches, 1.64 and 0.86 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 36.8 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -6.
Side by side
| Statistic | Torino | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 15th |
| Goal difference | -2 | -6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDLWL | LDLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 6 | 9 / 12 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 21 | 22 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.29 / 1.62 | 1.64 / 0.86 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.24 | 2.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 47.8 | 36.8 |
| Players unavailable | 2 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 58% | 8% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 7) | 3 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 7): Torino three wins, Monza one win, three draws — an edge to Torino.
- Most recent meeting: Torino 0-1 Monza on 01 September 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.86 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in four of the seven — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Torino 47.8 versus Monza 36.8, a gap of 11.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 15% and both teams to score at 25%.
- First goal: Leans Torino's way at 74%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Torino at 58%, a gap of 25 percentage points to the next outcome. Torino's form line and home advantage back it, the goals line points to under 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Torino's way, especially at Stadio Olimpico di Torino.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Torino or Monza?
Torino, with an implied win probability of roughly 58%. The full split is 58% Torino, 34% the draw and 8% Monza.
When and where is Torino vs Monza being played?
23 October 2026 at Stadio Olimpico di Torino, Turin, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Torino and Monza?
Torino 0-1 Monza on 01 September 2026.
What is the recent form of Torino and Monza?
Torino have taken 7 points from their last five (WDLWL), Monza 4 from theirs (LDLWL). Most recently Torino took a 2-1 win at home to Udinese and Monza a 1-3 defeat away at Lazio.
How many goals are expected in Torino vs Monza?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.20 for Torino and 0.80 for Monza. It rates over 2.5 goals at 15%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 25%, so its call is no.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists two players unavailable for Torino and no for Monza at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.