Fiorentina vs Atalanta: match summary, form and prediction
Fiorentina host Atalanta with a season still short of where it should be — 18th in Serie A and three games without a win. Form, comparison data, head-to-head and our model's read.
Match summary
Fiorentina face Atalanta on 29 October 2026 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence. Fiorentina are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This matchday 9 fixture in Serie A is listed as Fiorentina - Atalanta. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Fiorentina: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (43 scored and 44 conceded in 32 matches, 1.34 and 1.38 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 36.1 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -9. For a club of Fiorentina's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Atalanta: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (63 scored and 57 conceded in 46 matches, 1.37 and 1.24 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.8 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -1. For a club of Atalanta's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Fiorentina | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 11th |
| Goal difference | -9 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDWW | LLWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 8 | 8 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 32 | 46 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.34 / 1.38 | 1.37 / 1.24 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.38 | 1.61 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 36.1 | 34.8 |
| Players unavailable | 1 | 1 |
| Model win probability | 44% | 28% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 7) | 3 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 7): Fiorentina three wins, Atalanta two wins, two draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Fiorentina 1-1 Atalanta on 22 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in five of the seven — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Fiorentina 36.1 versus Atalanta 34.8, a gap of 1.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Big club, bad season: Fiorentina are 18th with a goal difference of -9 and three games without a win — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Fiorentina's way at 53%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Fiorentina at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Fiorentina's way, especially at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Fiorentina or Atalanta?
Fiorentina, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 44% Fiorentina, 28% the draw and 28% Atalanta.
When and where is Fiorentina vs Atalanta being played?
29 October 2026 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Fiorentina and Atalanta?
Fiorentina 1-1 Atalanta on 22 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Fiorentina and Atalanta?
Fiorentina have taken 7 points from their last five (LLDWW), Atalanta 6 from theirs (LLWWL). Most recently Fiorentina took a 1-3 defeat at home to Como and Atalanta a 0-2 defeat away at Ajax.
How many goals are expected in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 2.00 for Fiorentina and 1.00 for Atalanta. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists one player unavailable for Fiorentina and one for Atalanta at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.