AC Milan vs Inter: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Inter the pick at 58% for AC Milan vs Inter. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
AC Milan face Inter on 31 October 2026 at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan. Inter are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 58%. This matchday 10 fixture in Serie A is listed as AC Milan - Inter. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
AC Milan: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (30 scored and 29 conceded in 23 matches, 1.3 and 1.26 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 60.1 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +7.
Inter: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (94 scored and 40 conceded in 45 matches, 2.09 and 0.89 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 72.1 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +15.
Comparison data
| Statistic | AC Milan | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 1st |
| Goal difference | +7 | +15 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLWW | WWWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 9 | 11 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 23 | 45 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.3 / 1.26 | 2.09 / 0.89 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.43 | 2.09 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 60.1 | 72.1 |
| Players unavailable | 10 | 10 |
| Model win probability | 22% | 58% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 8) | 4 | 3 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 8): AC Milan four wins, Inter three wins, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: AC Milan 1-0 Inter on 08 March 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.75 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in five of the eight — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: AC Milan 60.1 versus Inter 72.1, a gap of 12.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.40, over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Inter's way at 64%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Inter at 58%, a gap of 36 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: AC Milan or Inter?
Inter, with an implied win probability of roughly 58%. The full split is 22% AC Milan, 19% the draw and 58% Inter.
When and where is AC Milan vs Inter being played?
31 October 2026 at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between AC Milan and Inter?
AC Milan 1-0 Inter on 08 March 2026.
What is the recent form of AC Milan and Inter?
AC Milan have taken 9 points from their last five (LWLWW), Inter 12 from theirs (WWWWL). Most recently AC Milan took a 2-4 defeat at home to Bologna and Inter a 2-0 win away at Venezia.
How many goals are expected in AC Milan vs Inter?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.40 — 1.80 for AC Milan and 2.60 for Inter. It rates over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists ten players unavailable for AC Milan and ten for Inter at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.