Atalanta vs Parma — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Atalanta host Parma with a season still short of where it should be — 12th in Serie A and winless in four. Form, comparison data, head-to-head and our model's read.
The fixture at a glance
Atalanta host Parma on 2 November 2026 at New Balance Arena, Bergamo. Atalanta are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 69%. This matchday 10 fixture in Serie A is listed as Atalanta - Parma. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Atalanta: they come in on two successive draws, following one win and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (63 scored and 57 conceded in 46 matches, 1.37 and 1.24 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.4 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -1. For a club of Atalanta's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Parma: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 32 conceded in 23 matches, 0.74 and 1.39 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.8 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of -10.
Side by side
| Statistic | Atalanta | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 19th |
| Goal difference | -1 | -10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDLLW | DLLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 12 | 3 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 46 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.37 / 1.24 | 0.74 / 1.39 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.61 | 1.09 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 41.4 | 35.8 |
| Players unavailable | 16 | 4 |
| Model win probability | 69% | 11% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 3) | 2 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 3): Atalanta two wins, Parma one win, none draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Atalanta 4-0 Parma on 25 January 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 4.33 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the three — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Atalanta 41.4 versus Parma 35.8, a gap of 5.6, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Big club, bad season: Atalanta are 12th with a goal difference of -1 and winless in four — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Availability: Atalanta carry the heavier absentee list, 16 players to four.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Atalanta's way at 72%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Atalanta at 69%, a gap of 49 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Atalanta's way, especially at New Balance Arena.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Atalanta or Parma?
Atalanta, with an implied win probability of roughly 69%. The full split is 69% Atalanta, 20% the draw and 11% Parma.
When and where is Atalanta vs Parma being played?
2 November 2026 at New Balance Arena, Bergamo, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Atalanta and Parma?
Atalanta 4-0 Parma on 25 January 2026.
What is the recent form of Atalanta and Parma?
Atalanta have taken 5 points from their last five (DDLLW), Parma 4 from theirs (DLLLW). Most recently Atalanta took a 2-2 draw away at Fiorentina and Parma a 0-0 draw at home to Udinese.
How many goals are expected in Atalanta vs Parma?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.80 for Atalanta and 0.60 for Parma. It rates over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists 16 players unavailable for Atalanta and four for Parma at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.