Bologna vs Monza: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Bologna the pick at 48% for Bologna vs Monza. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Bologna host Monza on 31 October 2026 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna. Bologna are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 48%. This matchday 10 fixture in Serie A is listed as Bologna - Monza. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Bologna: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (46 scored and 52 conceded in 41 matches, 1.12 and 1.27 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.3 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of 0.
Monza: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (36 scored and 19 conceded in 22 matches, 1.64 and 0.86 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 43.5 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -6.
Side by side
| Statistic | Bologna | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 16th |
| Goal difference | 0 | -6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWLWD | LLWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 7 | 10 / 12 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 41 | 22 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.12 / 1.27 | 1.64 / 0.86 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.37 | 2.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 58.3 | 43.5 |
| Players unavailable | 8 | 8 |
| Model win probability | 48% | 22% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 6) | 3 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 6): Bologna three wins, Monza one win, two draws — an edge to Bologna.
- Most recent meeting: Bologna 3-1 Monza on 18 January 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.83 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the six — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Bologna 58.3 versus Monza 43.5, a gap of 14.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.60, over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Bologna's way at 58%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Bologna at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Bologna's form line and home advantage back it, the goals line points to under 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Bologna's way, especially at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Bologna or Monza?
Bologna, with an implied win probability of roughly 48%. The full split is 48% Bologna, 30% the draw and 22% Monza.
When and where is Bologna vs Monza being played?
31 October 2026 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Bologna and Monza?
Bologna 3-1 Monza on 18 January 2025.
What is the recent form of Bologna and Monza?
Bologna have taken 10 points from their last five (WWLWD), Monza 4 from theirs (LLWLD). Most recently Bologna took a 4-2 win away at AC Milan and Monza a 1-4 defeat at home to Napoli.
How many goals are expected in Bologna vs Monza?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.60 — 2.20 for Bologna and 1.40 for Monza. It rates over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists eight players unavailable for Bologna and eight for Monza at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.